Workshop on Open Source Forecasting
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Probabilistic forecast reconciliation with bayesRecon

Forecasts in hierarchical time series often violate aggregation constraints, motivating probabilistic reconciliation methods and software solutions. In this session, the bayesRecon (R) and bayesreconpy (Python) packages are introduced and demonstrated, and their probabilistic reconciliation approach, support for multiple forecast types (Gaussian, non-Gaussian, discrete) and mixed hierarchies, unified cross-language interface, and licensing are discussed.
Published

June 26, 2025

Probabilistic forecast reconciliation with bayesRecon

June 26, 11:35 AM

Forecasts generated for each series in a hierarchy often violate aggregation constraints. The packages bayesRecon (R) and bayesreconpy (Python) implement probabilistic forecast reconciliation via conditioning for hierarchical time series.

Our packages reconcile probabilistic forecasts to ensure coherence across the hierarchy. They support different types of base forecasts: Gaussian, continuous non-Gaussian, discrete. They also support mixed hierarchies with discrete and continuous forecasts on different levels. The interface is unified across both languages, and the packages are released under an LGPL (≥3) license.

This presentation will introduce the software and demonstrate core functionalities with both R and Python short tutorials.

An International Institute of Forecasters workshop